Now that their deal seems to be going through with NBC-Universal, Comcast is in a position to screw with Hulu. If they want to, they can remove or provide less access to “Saturday Night Live” and “30 Rock,” and other shows. They could change the setup so that you can’t see as many NBC shows or Universal movies for free. Or they could set it up so that it’s only available on Fancast.com or Comcast.com. Regardless of what they do, they are in a position to slow Hulu’s growth.
Or they could just leave it as it is. Maybe they just spent all these billions of dollars for fun.
If they mess with Hulu, it will instantly move the free-with-ads stuff underground where Comcast and GE won’t won’t get any money for them. This maneuver would give an advantage to the new programs from other networks who use free online video to market their news and strengthen their existing ones. Of course they will damage “Saturday Night Live” and “30 Rock” too. I hadn’t watched “Saturday Night Live” for years until the videos started turning up on YouTube and eventually on Hulu. In Ross Perot’s words, you would hear that big sucking sound.
A weakened Hulu would be a big gift to Sony, as their Crackle site is terrific, and hopefully, will remain free. Hulu is the brand to beat now, but the public is fickle. If Hulu expanded its content into HBO, CNN, ESPN, no one would ever be able to touch them. They could easily lead us to a new media age where people would happily pay a monthly fee for the content they want without ads. An HBO model for everything. Guess what? You want people to pay to see your show? Make something that’s good. Don’t expect to have companies like Comcast make people pay you for your shows whether they want to watch them or not.
Of course in a world like that, many people would cut their cable cords. But I doubt there would be a mass exodus for a long time. Most won’t want the hassle of fine-tuning what they want to see, and connecting the computer to their TV, so they’ll keep paying for cable for the convenience. This is the way it always goes. Some folks keep using VHS tapes and audio cassettes long after the new thing is introduced.
But eventually the day will come when the cable cord is only for internet connections. It’s just a question of how much Comcast is willing to devastate their stock price and commit fiduciary hari-kari in a dubious attempt to forestall the inevitable.
The New York Times reports today that everybody in Hollywood thinks that Jeff Zucker is responsible for the failures at NBC, and that Comcast plans to keep him. Probably it’s one of those articles that will help convince Comcast to fire him if they haven’t made that decision already, but the whole deal (see below) suggests they are just dumb enough to do that. Stick with the guy who moved Leno to prime time and has the NBC affiliates outside his window with pitchforks.
I don’t want to be callous about all this. I feel sorry for all the people at Comcast and NBC and Universal who will lose their jobs because the people on top are so arrogant and foolish. But ultimately this is like the forest that must burn down so that the new growth can begin.
